FORECASTING

Air quality forecasting reflects a simulated dispersion of air pollutants in the ambient atmosphere. It provides short-term information on air quality, alerts the public and sensitive population about the health hazards from air pollution, advances communication and awareness campaigns to reduce emissions, and supports the preparation of policies that influence air quality and its management. The result of the simulation gives the ambient concentration of each pollutant, from which the Air Quality Index can be calculated and presented to the public. The forecasting system relies on inputs from emission data for all sectors, meteorological or weather data forecasts, and terrain data such as soil, vegetation, roughness/slope. Historical and current observations of air pollutant’s concentrations, recorded at Dubai’s air quality monitoring stations, are used to give feedback on the forecasting model performance over time and provide improvements towards the simulation accuracy. Evaluation of model performance is a continuous process, whereby the model inputs and parameters are fine-tuned and calibrated to ensure quality of the forecasted data. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) , and DUST: Entrainment of Particulates Model are applied in Dubai’s Air Quality Forecasting system.

EMISSION INVENTORY

Dubai Municipality has established an online emission inventory platform. The Emission Inventory for Emirate of Dubai is a comprehensive and detailed estimate of air emissions of criteria pollutants, criteria precursors, and hazardous air pollutants from specific emission sources. It assesses sectoral contribution to air quality and provides basis for the preparation of policies that influence air quality and its management. The emission facilities are required to periodically submit the source description, activity data and pollutant concentrations via an interactive online platform. A regularly updated emission inventory improves understanding of the relative contribution of each pollution source. The emission inventory covers both main stationary sources of emitted pollutants, mainly power plants and industrial facilities, and mobile sources related to the road transport, aviation and maritime sectors. The emissions data for stationary and non-stationary sources are evaluated based on the international guidelines mainly EMEP/EEA Air Pollutant Emission Inventory Guidebook 2016. The most common approach is to include the activity data information and coefficients that quantify the emissions per unit activity, called emission factors. The emission factors differ depending on the pollutant, sector and technology used. Facilities that are required to submit emission inventory data can access the online emission inventory portal here